Laws of Behaviour

Mental models for product design

037Bias

Recency Bias

A cognitive bias, often called the 'availability heuristic', is where people will favour recent events over historic ones.

Why it matters

As an example, when presented with a list of things to remember, people are more likely to remember both the first and last items, than those in the middle.

People also overestimate the probability of an event happening again, immediately after it has happened.

For instance, people who have just won the lottery may perceive that they have a greater chance of winning again, despite knowing that the odds are the same as they were the previous week.

Sharing & referrals:

• If the most recent experience of your product was negative, the user will be far less likely to recommend it to a friend (i.e., even if 99% of the other interactions have been positive).

Attention & interest

• People pay more attention to recent experiences.

What to inspect

  • Check whether the UI still supports this: If the most recent experience of your product was negative, the user will be far less likely to recommend it to a friend (i.e., even if 99% of the other inte…
  • Check whether the experience reflects this: People pay more attention to recent experiences.
  • Map each visible element to how it supports or undermines: A cognitive bias, often called the 'availability heuristic', is where people will favour recent events over historic ones.
  • Walk the primary task once with time pressure; note where attention drops.
  • Ask a colleague unfamiliar with the product to paraphrase the screen in one sentence.

Common anti-patterns

  • Assuming users consciously notice every place where "A cognitive bias, often called the 'availability heuristic', is where people will favour recent events over historic ones" could apply.
  • Dense copy and parallel actions that increase mental effort unrelated to the user’s goal.
  • Ignoring downstream effects on sharing and referrals when shipping this pattern.

Critique prompts

  • If the most recent experience of your product was negative, the user will be far less likely to recommend it to a friend (i.e., even if 99% of the other interactions have been positive).
  • People pay more attention to recent experiences.
  • Where on this screen would "Recency Bias" show up as friction or misunderstanding?
  • What would a first-time user misunderstand here in under five seconds?

Related laws